Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald has unveiled the Northern Ireland Skills Barometer 2023-2033, a comprehensive report detailing the region’s future skills needs and gaps over the next decade. Developed by the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, the Skills Barometer aims to inform policy decisions and guide stakeholders in addressing workforce challenges.
The findings highlight a projected growth to around one million jobs by 2033, necessitating significant investment in skills development. With an ageing population and an anticipated undersupply of skilled workers, the report underscores the urgency of aligning education and training with industry demands to ensure sustainable economic growth.
Projected Workforce Growth and Skills Shortages
The Skills Barometer projects that Northern Ireland’s workforce will expand by an additional 79,000 jobs over the next decade, reaching around one million by 2033. However, demographic trends indicate a significant undersupply of skilled workers, with a shortage of 5,400 individuals per annum needed to fill vacancies under a high-growth scenario.
Minister Archibald highlighted the long-term challenges posed by an ageing population, stating, “The number of young people coming into the labour market isn’t enough to meet the increased demand for jobs. The shortfall is such that an undersupply of people is anticipated at all skill levels.”
Sectors with High Growth Potential
High rates of growth are forecast in sectors closely aligned with the Department for the Economy’s priority areas, including agri-tech, life and health sciences, advanced manufacturing, fintech, software and cyber security, the screen industries, and low carbon technologies. These sectors are poised to drive economic expansion and offer substantial employment opportunities.
Addressing Labour Force Participation
Raising labour force participation is deemed essential to ensure businesses have access to sufficient labour to achieve growth objectives. With Brexit limiting the ability to recruit from the EU, the Minister emphasised the importance of helping people who face barriers to work or training into employment. “It is all the more important to help people who face barriers to work or training into employment,” she noted.
Importance of Upskilling and Retention
While upskilling unemployed individuals remains important, the Minister stressed the need to support people once they are in employment. “My Department is also looking at how it can better ensure that employers have the advice and support they need to attract and retain workers,” she said. Investing in skills is positioned as a central pillar of economic policy to address the anticipated skills undersupply.
Mark Magill, Senior Economist at Ulster University and author of the report, underscored the pressing need for continued investment in skills. “Investing in STEM, digital skills, transversal skills, and lifelong learning will be essential to developing a workforce that is resilient, competitive, and prepared for the future,” he stated.
Unaddressed Funding Sources and Implementation Strategies
While the report and statements highlight the challenges and the need for investment in skills, the announcement does not clarify the funding sources for the proposed initiatives. Given that the Minister mentioned the coming financial year will be difficult for her Department, it would be helpful to know how these essential investments in skills development will be financed.
Furthermore, specific policies or programmes to address the projected skills shortages are not detailed in the announcement. There is mention of supporting people in employment and helping those facing barriers to work, but concrete strategies or implementation plans are not provided.
Need for Detailed Plans for Employer Support
The announcement acknowledges the need for employers to have advice and support to attract and retain workers. However, it remains to be seen how the Department intends to provide this support and what resources will be allocated to assist employers in meeting their labour needs.
Questions Raised by the Report
- How will the Department for the Economy fund the necessary investments in skills development amid financial constraints?
- What specific measures will be implemented to support employers in attracting and retaining workers in key growth sectors?
- Given the projected annual shortage of 5,400 individuals, what strategies are in place to address this gap at all qualification levels?
- How will the challenges posed by an ageing population be mitigated to ensure a sufficient labour supply?
- What role will lifelong learning and upskilling play in supporting those already in employment, and how will these programmes be delivered?
The Northern Ireland Skills Barometer 2023-2033 serves as a critical tool for addressing future workforce challenges, highlighting the need for strategic investment in skills and education. As Northern Ireland aims for significant economic growth over the next decade, the effective implementation of policies to mitigate skills shortages will be paramount. Further announcements detailing funding sources, specific programmes, and implementation strategies will be key in understanding the full impact of these initiatives. Stakeholders may wish to engage with policymakers and contribute to shaping the skills strategy to ensure it meets the evolving demands of the economy.