The Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA) has published the latest labour market statistics, revealing a picture of stagnation as the region enters spring 2026. While payrolled employee numbers and median earnings have grown over the year, the data indicates the labour market is “losing momentum” with no statistically significant changes in employment levels and a sharp rise in confirmed redundancies.
The figures, published on 19 March 2026 by NISRA on behalf of the Department for the Economy, show Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate holding steady at 2.2% for the period November 2025 to January 2026, though this headline figure masks underlying pressures including a 25% jump in annual redundancies and persistently high economic inactivity.
Key Statistics at a Glance
- Payrolled employees: 820,800 in February 2026 (up 0.2% over the month; up 1.4% over the year)
- Median monthly pay: £2,493 (up 1.8% over the month; up 8.2% over the year)
- Unemployment rate: 2.2% (November-January 2026 period), down 0.2 percentage points over the quarter but up 0.6 percentage points over the year
- Employment rate: 71.6% (up 0.9 percentage points over the quarter; down 0.6 percentage points over the year)
- Economic inactivity: 26.7% (down 0.8 percentage points over the quarter; up 0.1 percentage points over the year)
- Claimant count: 35,600 in February 2026 (3.6% of workforce), down 0.6% over the month but 19.1% higher than pre-pandemic levels
- Confirmed redundancies: 2,360 over the year to February 2026, up over 25% from the previous year
- Proposed redundancies: 2,930 over the year, down around 4% from the previous year
- Employee jobs (QES): 843,860 in December 2025 (up 0.3% over the quarter; up 1.3% over the year)
A “Steady State” with Warning Signs
The official commentary accompanying the release strikes a cautious tone. NISRA noted that while payrolled employee numbers from HMRC data and employee jobs from the Quarterly Employment Survey both increased over the year, these gains were relatively modest.
“The latest labour market data indicates that Northern Ireland’s labour market continues to lose momentum. Although there have been increases in employment levels in both the payrolled employee numbers from the HMRC payroll data and employee jobs from the QES over the year, both of these increases have been relatively small. There were no statistically significant changes reported from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) over either the quarter or the year, indicating a relatively steady state in the labour market.”
The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in Northern Ireland reached 820,800 in February 2026, representing a 1.4% increase over the year. However, the total number of weekly hours worked was estimated at 28.9 million, a decrease of 0.9% on both the previous quarter and the equivalent period last year.
Wage Growth Outpaces Inflation
One bright spot in the data is earnings growth. Northern Ireland employees saw median monthly pay reach £2,493 in February 2026, an increase of £189 (8.2%) over the year. This nominal growth significantly outpaces the UK consumer price inflation rate of 3% recorded in January 2026, suggesting real-terms wage increases for many workers.
“Earnings data from HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,493 in February 2026, an increase of £43 (1.8%) over the month and an increase of £189 (8.2%) over the year.”
However, the estimates are based on early data—approximately 85% of information for the February flash estimates—meaning these figures are subject to potentially larger revisions when complete data becomes available.
Redundancies Rise Despite Low Unemployment
A concerning trend emerges in the redundancy figures. While the unemployment rate remains low at 2.2%—well below the 5.1% rate for the wider UK—confirmed redundancies have risen sharply.
“NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 140 redundancies occurred in February 2026. Over the year, March 2025 to February 2026, 2,360 redundancies were confirmed, which was over twenty five percent higher than the figure for the previous year (1,880).”
Proposed redundancies tell a slightly different story, with the annual total of 2,930 being around 4% lower than the previous year. This disconnect between proposed and confirmed redundancies may reflect timing differences in when companies notify the Department versus when job losses actually occur.
The Persistent Challenge of Economic Inactivity
Economic inactivity—the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who are neither working nor seeking work—remains stubbornly high at 26.7%. This compares unfavourably with the UK average of 20.8% and the Republic of Ireland’s rate of approximately 22%.
Research from Invest NI indicates that 38% of economically inactive people in Northern Ireland cite sickness or disability as the reason, compared with 31% UK-wide. This suggests specific structural barriers to labour market participation that persist despite the tight labour market conditions implied by the low unemployment rate.
Data Quality and Methodology Notes
Readers should note several important caveats in this release. The PAYE Real Time Information (RTI) data used for employment and earnings estimates is still classed as official statistics in development.
“Early estimates (flash estimates) for February 2026 are based on around 85% of information and will be subject to revision in the next month’s release when between 98% and 99% of data will be available (main estimates).”
The Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error, with the unemployment rate likely to fall within a range of 1.5% to 2.8% (plus or minus 0.7 percentage points from the quoted 2.2%).
Questions for the Executive and Stakeholders
- With confirmed redundancies up 25% year-on-year, what specific support is being offered to sectors experiencing the heaviest job losses, and how does this align with the Department for the Economy’s productivity strategy?
- Given that 38% of economically inactive people cite sickness or disability—significantly higher than the UK average—what targeted health and employment interventions are being developed to address this specific barrier?
- Does the combination of declining hours worked (down 0.9%) and rising employment suggest underemployment or productivity challenges that could affect long-term economic growth?
- How will the 8.2% nominal wage growth affect local business competitiveness, particularly for small and medium enterprises already facing cost pressures?
- With the claimant count remaining 19.1% above pre-pandemic levels despite a 2.2% unemployment rate, is the current benefits system adequately capturing those in precarious or underpaid employment?
What to Watch For
The next Labour Market Report is scheduled for release on 21 April 2026. Analysts will be watching closely to see whether the February uptick in redundancies continues or reverses, and whether the strong wage growth figures hold up once the remaining 15% of PAYE data is incorporated.
With Ulster University’s Economic Policy Centre forecasting just 0.5% job growth for 2026, the “steady state” described in today’s figures may represent the new normal for Northern Ireland’s labour market—stable but struggling to generate significant new opportunities.
The full statistical bulletin and associated tables are available from NISRA’s website.