The Northern Ireland economy grew by 1.0% between April and June 2026, reaching its highest level in the series, according to official statistics published today. The figures show output was 2.3% higher than the same period last year and now stands 12.7% above pre-pandemic levels.
The latest Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) indicates the local economy outperformed the UK as a whole, which grew by 0.4% over the quarter and 1.2% over the year.
Services and production drive expansion
The expansion was powered mainly by two sectors:
- Services — including finance, retail, hospitality and transport — contributed 0.4 percentage points to the overall 1.0% quarterly growth
- Production — covering manufacturing, energy and mining — also contributed 0.4 percentage points
Together these sectors accounted for 0.8 percentage points of the total growth, with construction, agriculture and the public sector making up the remainder.
Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald welcomed the figures, saying:
“These are very positive figures which demonstrate the strength and resilience of our economy and show that we continue to move in the right direction. It is particularly encouraging to see growth across both the private and public sectors, with services and production helping to drive the increase over the latest quarter.”
Trade performance and ‘Dual Market Access’
The Minister also highlighted trade data published by HMRC on 17 September 2026, which showed Northern Ireland’s goods exports increased by 3.6% in the year to June 2026 compared with the previous 12 months. The Department pointed to rising exports to the European Union and increased trade with the Republic of Ireland.
Dr Archibald linked this to Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements:
“This positive picture is also reflected in recent trade figures, with goods exports continuing to grow, including increased exports to the EU and increased trade with the south. Our unique Dual Market Access arrangement provides us with a significant competitive advantage. I am determined to maximise that opportunity to attract investment, increase exports and create more good jobs.”
Dual Market Access refers to Northern Ireland’s position under the Windsor Framework, which allows goods to move freely into both the EU Single Market and the UK internal market. Analysts note that the arrangement also creates complexity: businesses must navigate different regulatory requirements, labelling rules and customs procedures depending on their destination market. The full economic impact of these arrangements remains contested among economists.
What the headline figures don’t show
The announcement paints a broadly positive picture, but a closer look at the underlying data reveals a more mixed performance across different parts of the economy.
While the services sector as a whole grew, this was not universal. According to separate NISRA figures also published this month, the “other services” category — which includes education, health and arts — actually contracted by 0.8% in the second quarter. Retail sales fell by 1.0% over the quarter and were down 2.0% compared with the same period last year.
The press release does not address:
- Regional variations — whether growth is concentrated in Belfast and surrounding areas or spread across all 11 council areas
- Inflation and living standards — while economic output is rising, there is no mention of whether wages are keeping pace with the cost of living
- Productivity — Northern Ireland has historically lagged behind UK averages on this measure
- Economic inactivity — the proportion of working-age people neither in work nor seeking work remains higher in Northern Ireland than elsewhere in the UK
The “12.7% above pre-pandemic level” claim uses the final quarter of 2019 as its baseline — the last full quarter before COVID-19 disrupted economic activity.
The Minister’s Economic Vision
Dr Archibald referenced her “Economic Vision” in her statement. This policy framework, continued from her predecessor Conor Murphy, has four stated priorities: increasing “good jobs,” raising productivity, decarbonising the economy, and achieving “regional balance” to ensure opportunities are spread across Northern Ireland rather than concentrated in particular areas.
The Department’s most recent progress report, published in January 2026, showed 22 of 41 planned actions were on track, with 17 experiencing delays of up to six months. Two actions — including the Net Zero Accelerator Fund — were delayed by more than six months.
Questions raised by the figures
- With retail sales declining and some services sectors contracting, how sustainable is the current growth pattern?
- What specific measures is the Department taking to ensure economic benefits reach areas outside Belfast and the east of Northern Ireland?
- How does the Minister plan to address the productivity gap that has historically held back Northern Ireland’s economy?
- What assessment has been made of the costs and administrative burdens that Dual Market Access creates for businesses, alongside its benefits?
- Given the planned 64% reduction in funding for employment support programmes from 2025-26 to 2026-27, according to Parliamentary analysis of the UKSPF to Local Growth Fund transition, how will the Department support economically inactive people into work?
The next set of economic output statistics, covering the third quarter of 2026, are scheduled for publication in December 2026.