Northern Ireland’s cancer waiting times have deteriorated further, with just 6.2% of urgent breast cancer referrals seen within the 14-day target in the second quarter of 2026 — a sharp drop from 7.9% in the previous three months. The latest Department of Health statistics, published 1 October 2026, reveal persistent failures across all three cancer waiting time targets, with performance remaining far below the standards patients should expect.
The figures for April to June 2026 show some modest improvements in patient numbers starting treatment, but the proportion meeting clinical targets has worsened or stagnated. The data carries significant caveats due to the ongoing rollout of the new ‘encompass’ electronic patient record system, which has created gaps in historical data and rendered some comparisons with pre-2024 figures unreliable.
Three targets, three failures
The Department tracks cancer waiting times against three distinct targets, each measuring a different stage of the patient journey:
- 14-day target: Urgent breast cancer referrals should be seen by a specialist within 14 days. In Q2 2026, only 6.2% (239 of 3,830 patients) met this standard — down from 7.9% in Q1 2026.
- 31-day target: At least 98% of patients should start treatment within 31 days of a decision to treat. In Q2 2026, 88.7% (2,697 of 3,039 patients) met this — up slightly from 87.3% the previous quarter, but still nearly 10 percentage points below target.
- 62-day target: At least 95% of patients should start treatment within 62 days of an urgent GP referral for suspected cancer. In Q2 2026, just 28.4% (414 of 1,459 patients) met this — down from 29.6% in Q1 2026, and less than one-third of the required standard.
The 6.2% figure for breast cancer assessments represents a particularly alarming deterioration. While the previous quarter had shown a modest recovery to 7.9% from a low of 5.5% in late 2025, the Q2 2026 drop suggests the regional breast cancer referral system — introduced in 2025 to replace trust-level management — continues to struggle with capacity and coordination.
What the Department says
The Department of Health published the statistics without accompanying ministerial comment. The press release notes that data for the 31- and 62-day targets have been revised for quarters from December 2023 to March 2026, with revised methodology available on the Department’s website.
On the encompass system, the Department states: “Figures sourced from encompass are considered to be ‘official statistics in development’, which are a subset of Official Statistics in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics. While caution must be exercised when using these figures and they are not directly comparable with legacy (pre-encompass) data, they are a meaningful representation of what they measure and are of sufficient quality for publication and use.”
Data gaps cloud the picture
The statistics come with significant limitations that may understate the true scale of waiting time problems:
- Validated data for Belfast Trust for Q2 2024 is unavailable due to encompass rollout
- Breast cancer referrals data for Belfast Trust for Q3 2024 is missing
- Validated breast cancer referrals data for Southern and Western Trusts for Q2 2025 is unavailable
- Historical data from December 2023 to March 2026 has been revised, making trend analysis difficult
These gaps mean comparisons with pre-pandemic performance — when Northern Ireland’s cancer services were already under strain — are effectively impossible for some trusts and time periods.
How Northern Ireland compares
The latest available UK-wide data suggests Northern Ireland’s cancer waiting times are the worst in the United Kingdom. For context (note: these are the latest available comparable figures but from slightly different periods):
- Scotland (Q1 2026): 94.5% met the 31-day target; 72.2% met the 62-day target — both below their 95% standards, but substantially ahead of Northern Ireland
- England (March 2026): 92.8% met the 31-day target; 72.8% met the 62-day target — again below standard, but far exceeding Northern Ireland’s performance
- Wales (March 2026): 60.2% met their combined 62-day pathway target
Naser Turabi of Cancer Research UK has previously described Northern Ireland’s cancer waiting times as “the worst in the UK,” noting that “around 70% of patients missing the target every month represents thousands of people whose treatment is being delayed and they are potentially coming to harm.”
The encompass factor
The new encompass electronic patient record system — fully rolled out across all five trusts by May 2025 — represents one of the most ambitious digital health transformations in UK history. Health Minister Mike Nesbitt has called it “a once-in-a-generation opportunity” that puts Northern Ireland “at the forefront of digital transformation of health service delivery.”
However, the transition has clearly disrupted data collection and, according to trust sources, clinical workflows. Dr Dermot Hughes, Senior Responsible Owner for encompass, said at the final rollout: “This completes the roll-out of a single, unified digital care record across each health and social care Trust in Northern Ireland… encompass will transform how we deliver care by making it safer, more connected and more patient-centric.”
Whether these promised improvements materialise — and whether they can reverse the deterioration in cancer waiting times — remains to be seen. The Department notes that encompass data “are not directly comparable with legacy (pre-encompass) data,” creating a statistical discontinuity that makes it difficult to assess whether performance is genuinely improving or merely being measured differently.
Questions for policymakers
The publication of these statistics without ministerial comment raises several important questions:
- Given that the 14-day breast cancer target has now fallen to 6.2% — meaning approximately 94% of urgent referrals did not meet the 14-day target — what specific interventions are planned to address this crisis?
- Does the Department accept that the regional breast cancer referral system, introduced in 2025 to replace trust-level management, has failed to deliver its intended improvements?
- When will validated, comparable data be available across all trusts, and how will the public know whether encompass is genuinely improving patient pathways rather than simply changing how they are measured?
- Given Northern Ireland’s position as the worst-performing UK region for cancer waiting times, what discussions have taken place with the Northern Ireland Executive about emergency additional resources?
- With research indicating that every four-week delay in cancer treatment reduces survival by approximately 10%, what assessment has been made of the clinical impact of these persistent failures?
The next quarterly statistics, covering July to September 2026, are expected in late December or early January 2027. Patients and clinicians will be watching closely to see whether the encompass system begins to deliver the transformation promised — or whether Northern Ireland’s cancer services continue to lag dangerously behind.