One in every 16 school-aged children in Northern Ireland has now been diagnosed with autism, according to official figures published today by the Department of Health. The new data reveals that prevalence has reached 6.2% among pupils aged 4 to 15 during the 2025/26 school year, continuing a steep upward trend that has seen rates more than double since 2019.
The annual report, compiled from the Northern Ireland School Census, highlights significant disparities in diagnosis rates between boys and girls, urban and rural communities, and particularly between affluent and deprived areas. The findings raise fresh questions about whether health and education services can adequately support the growing number of children requiring assistance.
Record High Prevalence Rate
The estimated prevalence of autism within the school-aged population in Northern Ireland was 6.2% in 2025/26, rising from 5.9% the previous year. This represents a dramatic increase from 2008/09, when the rate stood at just 1.2%.
Key findings from the report include:
- Males are 2.3 times more likely to be identified with autism than females—a slight narrowing from the 2.5:1 ratio recorded in 2024/25
- The urban population has a statistically significant higher prevalence rate than rural areas
- Using the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure (MDM), the rate of autism in the most deprived decile was over 38% higher than the Northern Ireland average
- 19% of children diagnosed with autism did not have any special educational needs
- 65% were classified at Stage 3 of the Special Educational Needs (SEN) Assessment, indicating they hold a Statement of SEN
Gaps in Provision and Missing Context
While the statistical release provides a detailed snapshot of prevalence, it offers no explanation for the continued year-on-year increase, nor does it address the significant waiting lists for diagnostic assessments. Recent reports indicate that approximately 17,000 children remain on waiting lists for autism assessments across Northern Ireland’s health trusts, with some families waiting more than four years for a diagnosis.
The publication also omits any discussion of the pressure on educational settings. The Education Authority has previously stated it requires an additional £300 million merely to maintain current special educational needs services, before accounting for the rising demand reflected in today’s figures.
Notably absent too is any ministerial statement or policy response to the data. The press release confines itself to statistical presentation, leaving unanswered how the Executive intends to address the widening deprivation gap—where children in the poorest areas are significantly more likely to be diagnosed with autism—and whether resources will follow the documented need.
Questions Raised by the Data
The continued rise in prevalence prompts several urgent considerations for policymakers:
- With rates increasing annually, what is the projected ceiling for autism prevalence in Northern Ireland, and are health services modelling accordingly?
- How will the Education Authority reconcile the 6.2% prevalence rate with its reported £300 million funding shortfall for special educational needs provision?
- What specific interventions are planned to address the 38% higher diagnosis rate in deprived areas, and does this correlation indicate environmental, diagnostic, or support-access factors?
- With waiting lists for assessment stretching to four years in some trusts, how will the Health Department ensure timely diagnosis for the thousands of children currently awaiting evaluation?
What Happens Next
The Department of Health has confirmed that statistics for the 2026/27 school year will be published in May 2027. In the interim, parents and advocates will be watching for progress on implementing the Autism (Amendment) Act (Northern Ireland) 2022, which was designed to strengthen support services but has faced delays.
For families seeking information on the diagnostic process or special educational needs provision, the Department of Health’s autism statistics page provides links to the full report and accompanying data tables.
The full report is available at: www.health-ni.gov.uk/articles/autism-statistics