Over half a million people were waiting for a first hospital outpatient appointment in Northern Ireland at the end of 2025, with the majority waiting more than a year to see a consultant, according to official statistics published today. The quarterly figures, released by the Department of Health on 4 March 2026, show that despite slight reductions in queue sizes compared to the previous quarter, no Health and Social Care (HSC) Trust met any ministerial waiting time targets.
The data marks the second full quarter since the region-wide rollout of the encompass electronic patient record system, which became operational across all five trusts in May 2025. While the system promises to transform data quality and patient care, the statistics carry an “official statistics in development” warning, meaning direct comparisons with pre-digital records remain problematic.
Key Figures: The Scale of the Backlog
The December 2025 outpatient waiting list statistics show:
- 527,062 patients waiting for a first consultant-led outpatient appointment, down 2.8% (15,389 patients) from September 2025
- Median wait of 63.7 weeks (approximately 14.6 months), a slight decrease from 64.1 weeks in September
- 87.1% of patients (459,020 people) waiting longer than the nine-week target
- 55.3% (291,387 patients) waiting longer than 52 weeks—against a target of zero
For inpatient and day case treatment, the position on 31 December 2025 showed:
- 84,329 patients waiting for admission, down 8.0% from September 2025
- Median wait of 30.1 weeks (down from 35.1 weeks)
- 38.1% (32,151 patients) waiting longer than 52 weeks, against a target of zero
- No trust met the target that 55% of patients should wait less than 13 weeks
Diagnostic waiting times showed a similar pattern:
- 220,999 patients waiting for tests, down 2.9% from September
- 63.5% waiting longer than nine weeks
- 38.9% (85,995 patients) waiting longer than 26 weeks
- No trust achieved the target that 75% should wait less than nine weeks
The Encompass Data Caveat
The Department of Health notes that figures sourced from the new encompass system are designated “official statistics in development” under the Code of Practice for Statistics. While assessed as a meaningful representation of current waiting lists, the data are not directly comparable with legacy (pre-encompass) figures due to changes in data source and collection methodology.
This statistical transition follows the phased rollout of the £330+ million digital records system, introduced in the South Eastern Trust in November 2023, Belfast in June 2024, Northern in November 2024, and Southern and Western on 8 May 2025. The system provides a single digital care record for every citizen receiving health and social care, with the My Care patient portal now used by approximately 300,000 people (15% of the adult population).
Progress Claims in Context
The publication coincides with recent claims by Health Minister Mike Nesbitt that waiting lists are falling significantly. In January 2026, the Minister announced that a target to reduce lengthy waiting lists by 70,000 had been “exceeded threefold,” with more than 200,000 additional patients seen, diagnosed or treated during the financial year.
Speaking at a Stormont event in January, Nesbitt described the progress as “a phenomenal achievement,” stating: “We will be well over 200,000 by the time we get to the end of the financial year.” He attributed these gains to “new ways of working, better use of data, modern scheduling and digital platforms.”
However, Professor Mark Taylor, the Regional Clinical Director for Elective Care appointed to tackle the backlog, has acknowledged that “much more work remains, as waiting lists are still far too long, with thousands of people left waiting for surgeries, consultations and other essential medical procedures.”
Gaps in the Data
Several gaps remain in public reporting. The bulletin does not provide a detailed breakdown of which specific specialties or hospitals account for the reductions, nor does it explain whether the quarterly decreases represent genuine progress or seasonal variations in referrals. Additionally, primary care data remains excluded from the encompass system, meaning GP appointments and community care pressures are not captured in these figures—a significant omission given that GP patient lists have grown by 23% on average since 2014.
The statistics also reveal ongoing data quality challenges during the digital transition. The Department notes that “caution must be exercised when using these figures,” while the 95th percentile waiting time for outpatients stands at 303.7 weeks—nearly six years.
Outstanding Questions
- How long will the “official statistics in development” caveat remain in place, and when will reliable year-on-year comparisons be possible?
- Given that 55% of outpatients wait over a year against a target of zero, what specific capacity increases are required to meet ministerial targets, and where will the funding come from?
- When will GP and primary care data be integrated into encompass to provide a complete picture of patient waiting times across the entire health system?
- Does the slight quarterly reduction in waiting lists represent sustainable progress, or a temporary dip reflecting seasonal demand patterns?
Next Quarter and Beyond
The next quarterly statistics, covering the position at 31 March 2026, will be crucial in determining whether the current downward trend is sustained. With the encompass system now stabilising across all five trusts, attention will shift to whether the digital transformation can deliver the operational efficiencies promised—particularly in diagnostic reporting, where performance against the two-day urgent target improved to 77.4% in the final quarter of 2025.
For the 527,000 people currently awaiting outpatient appointments, however, the reality remains that over half face waits exceeding a year. Until the “official statistics in development” mature into consistently accredited data, policymakers and patients alike will struggle to assess whether Northern Ireland’s health service is genuinely turning a corner, or merely exchanging paper backlogs for digital ones.