Public transport use in Northern Ireland has surpassed pre-pandemic levels for the first time, with 84 million journeys recorded in 2025-26. The milestone, revealed in official statistics published by the Department for Infrastructure, points to a mixed recovery between bus and rail services.
While overall passenger numbers edged 3.6% higher than the previous year and finally exceeded 2019-20 levels, bus services remain below their pre-pandemic benchmark. Rail travel, by contrast, has surged dramatically—raising questions about what is driving the divergence and whether the growth is sustainable.
Record overall numbers, but bus recovery stalls
The Public Transport Statistics Northern Ireland 2025-26 report shows:
- 84.0 million total journeys in 2025-26, up from 81.1 million in 2024-25 and marginally above the 83.4 million recorded in 2019-20
- 68.1 million bus journeys, up just 0.5% year-on-year but still 0.2% below pre-pandemic levels
- 15.9 million rail journeys, a striking 19.2% increase on 2024-25 and 4.9% above 2019-20 levels
Figures from 2023-24 suggest Great Britain’s local bus patronage outside London had reached 84% of pre-pandemic levels, though more recent data may show further recovery. London’s public transport mode share remained below pre-pandemic levels at 33.0% in 2024 compared to 36.4% for private transport.
Rail surge lacks clear explanation
The 19.2% jump in rail passenger numbers stands out as exceptional, yet the Department for Infrastructure’s announcement offers no explanation for what drove this increase. The surge follows a 3.8% decline in 2024-25, when rail carried 13.3 million passengers.
Possible factors could include service improvements, new infrastructure, fare changes, or simply recovery from an unusually low baseline. Without additional context, it is difficult to assess whether this represents genuine modal shift from cars and buses, or whether the growth can be maintained.
Fleet ageing as zero-emission transition continues
The statistics reveal a bus fleet gradually transitioning to cleaner technology, but rail rolling stock is ageing:
- 17.4% of buses are now zero-emission vehicles (up from 15.0% in 2024-25)
- 2.4% are diesel hybrid, with the remaining 80.2% still diesel-powered
- Bus fleet ages: Ulsterbuses average 10.7 years, Metro buses 7.1 years, Gliders 7.5 years
- Rail carriages average 20 years old—unchanged from the previous year
According to Office of Rail and Road data, the 20-year average age for rail carriages places Northern Ireland towards the older end of UK rolling stock, though not exceptionally so. Operators such as c2c (20.7 years), Southeastern (22.7 years) and Chiltern Railways (32 years) operate similarly or significantly older fleets. The UK average fell to around 15 years by March 2021 following major orders, suggesting Northern Ireland’s rail fleet has not benefited from equivalent recent investment.
Staffing levels dip slightly
Translink employed 4,324 full-time equivalent staff in 2025-26, a marginal 0.2% decrease from 4,331 in 2024-25. Bus services accounted for 70.3% of staff (3,040 FTE) and rail for 29.7% (1,284 FTE).
The slight staffing reduction comes despite increased passenger numbers, raising questions about service quality pressures. The statistics contain no data on punctuality, reliability, or customer satisfaction—metrics that would help assess whether bus services in particular are maintaining standards with static passenger volumes and slightly reduced staffing.
Missing pieces: fares, reliability, and rural services
The Department’s announcement highlights record overall passenger numbers but omits several factors that would help readers understand the full picture. There is no mention of:
- Fare levels or changes—have rising costs contributed to revenue growth even as some passenger categories remain below pre-pandemic levels?
- Service reliability or punctuality data
- Breakdown between urban and rural bus services—the 0.5% overall bus increase may conceal significant regional variations
- Whether the 19.2% rail growth reflects new infrastructure, timetable changes, or other factors
The framing of “record” passenger numbers also warrants analytical caution. While 84.0 million journeys exceeds 2019-20, it represents only modest growth over six years—roughly 0.7% total, or barely 0.1% annually—during a period when population and economic activity have increased.
Questions for policymakers
- What specific factors drove the 19.2% rail passenger increase, and can this growth be sustained without additional infrastructure investment?
- Why have bus services failed to recover fully to pre-pandemic levels, and what targeted interventions might address this?
- Is the 20-year average age of rail carriages acceptable for passenger comfort and reliability, and what replacement timeline exists?
- How does the slight reduction in staffing align with maintaining service quality, particularly given the ageing rail fleet?
- What proportion of the zero-emission bus transition is funded through external sources versus operational budgets?
The statistics will provide baseline data for assessing any future service changes. Translink has faced significant financial pressures, with its chief executive warning in May 2026 that £10 million in savings were required to avoid a “financially unsustainable position”—including potential service reductions and removal of fare discounts. The 2025-26 passenger growth, while welcome, appears insufficient to resolve these underlying funding challenges.