The Department for Infrastructure has published new figures showing a significant reduction in the most severe road traffic injuries recorded in Northern Ireland. Released today by the Department’s Analysis, Statistics and Research Branch, the statistics reveal that clinically serious injuries fell by more than a quarter during 2024, though concerns persist regarding the disproportionate impact on older people and the marked over-representation of males in casualty figures.
The report tracks Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale 3+ (MAIS3+) casualties from 1999 to 2024, using hospital admissions data to provide a clinical measure of injury severity that allows for international comparison. MAIS3+ represents injuries with a score of 3 or higher on a scale where 1 indicates a minor injury and 6 refers to an unsurvivable injury.
Sharp Reduction in Severe Casualties
The data show that 50 people sustained clinically serious injuries (MAIS3+) in road traffic collisions during 2024. This represents a 28 per cent decrease compared with the previous year and a 79 per cent reduction from the peak of 235 casualties recorded in 2002.
Key findings from the report include:
- In 2024, 50 MAIS3+ casualties were recorded, down 28 per cent from the previous year
- Males accounted for seven-tenths (70 per cent) of all MAIS3+ casualties between 2020 and 2024
- Adults aged 70 and over made up one quarter (25 per cent) of MAIS3+ casualties during the same five-year period
- Overall, 11 per cent of hospital admissions for road traffic collisions involved injuries classified as MAIS3+
- The proportion of MAIS3+ injuries varies by road user type, ranging from 8 per cent for pedal cyclists to 14 per cent for other road users
Demographic Patterns and Vulnerabilities
Males represent 70 per cent of severe casualties, a proportion that exceeds their representation in both overall hospital admissions (68 per cent) and PSNI-reported serious injuries (62 per cent).
Perhaps more striking is the over-representation of older adults. Those aged 70 and above constitute 25 per cent of MAIS3+ casualties, yet this age group represents only 14 per cent of overall hospital admissions for road traffic collisions and just 11 per cent of PSNI-reported serious injuries. This suggests that when older people are involved in collisions, they are more likely to sustain clinically severe injuries requiring hospitalisation.
Shift in Reporting Patterns
The report reveals a notable reversal in historical data patterns. Traditionally, hospital data showed significant underreporting to police, with an estimated 22 per cent of serious injury casualties not known to the PSNI over the 26-year period from 1999 to 2024.
However, since 2020, this trend has reversed. In every year from 2020 onwards, the number of serious injuries reported by the PSNI has exceeded hospital admissions. During the most recent five-year period (2020-2024), PSNI serious injuries exceeded hospital admissions by 40 per cent—a shift that raises questions about changing reporting behaviours or injury classification methods.
Strategy Context and International Comparison
The publication comes as Northern Ireland continues implementation of the Road Safety Strategy to 2030, which aims to reduce deaths and serious injuries by 50 per cent by 2030. The Strategy, approved by the Executive in September 2024, adopts Safe Systems principles focusing on safe roads, safe vehicles, and safe people.
While the 28 per cent year-on-year reduction in severe injuries is welcome, the data suggests persistent challenges remain. The high proportion of severe injuries among older adults (25 per cent) and males (70 per cent) indicates that targeted interventions may be necessary to address specific vulnerabilities. Additionally, the reversal in reporting patterns—where police now record more serious injuries than hospitals—requires careful monitoring to ensure data consistency and reliability.
The Department notes that MAIS3+ data provides a more accurate basis for international comparison than police-reported statistics alone, as the clinical definition standardises severity assessment across jurisdictions. This is particularly relevant as the European Union recommends MAIS3+ as the preferred measure for serious injury reporting.
Questions for Policymakers
Several questions emerge from today’s publication:
- What factors explain the significant over-representation of adults aged 70 and over in severe injury statistics, and what specific road safety measures are being developed to protect this vulnerable group?
- Why has the historical pattern of underreporting to police reversed since 2020, with PSNI figures now exceeding hospital admissions by 40 per cent?
- How will the Department ensure that the 28 per cent reduction in 2024 represents a sustained trend rather than an anomalous year?
- Given that males account for 70 per cent of severe casualties, what targeted education or enforcement strategies are being considered to address this disparity?
- How will these clinically-based statistics inform the interim targets and Key Performance Indicators established under the Road Safety Strategy to 2030?
The report is available on the Department for Infrastructure website. The Analysis, Statistics and Research Branch can be contacted for additional data breakdowns or alternative formats.