Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions flatlined in 2024, halting the previous year’s sharp decline and raising fresh questions about the region’s ability to meet its legally binding 2030 climate targets. New statistics published today by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) show net emissions remained virtually unchanged at 18.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), just 0.04% below 2023 levels.
The figures reveal Northern Ireland continues to lag significantly behind the rest of the United Kingdom in reducing its carbon footprint. While the UK as a whole has cut emissions by 52.9% since the baseline year, Northern Ireland has achieved only a 29.4% reduction—placing it far behind England (55%), Scotland (52.2%), and Wales (44.5%).
2024 Data Shows Stalled Progress
The statistical bulletin, produced by Ricardo Energy and Environment, indicates that Northern Ireland generated 22.2 MtCO2e in total emissions during 2024, offset by 3.8 MtCO2e removed through carbon sequestration. This stagnation represents a stark contrast to the 7.1% reduction recorded between 2022 and 2023.
Key findings from the seventeenth annual release include:
- Net emissions remained at 18.4 MtCO2e in 2024, effectively unchanged from 2023
- Long-term reduction stands at 29.4% since the base year (1990 for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide; 1995 for fluorinated gases)
- Agriculture remained the largest emitting sector, responsible for 31.4% of emissions
- Domestic transport contributed 21.3%, making it the second-largest source
- Buildings and product uses accounted for 15.5%, while Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) contributed 11.7%
- Electricity supply represented 10.8% of the total
- Only three sectors showed decreases: Electricity Supply (down 0.2 MtCO2e), Industry (down 0.05 MtCO2e), and Waste (down 0.02 MtCO2e)
Sector Breakdown Highlights Persistent Challenges
Agriculture continues to dominate Northern Ireland’s emissions profile at 31.4%—significantly higher than the UK average, where the sector contributes approximately 13%. This heavy reliance on livestock and fertiliser presents distinct decarbonisation challenges not faced by other UK regions to the same degree.
Domestic transport remains the second-largest contributor at 21.3%, with buildings and product uses accounting for 15.5%. The LULUCF sector’s 11.7% contribution is particularly notable; unlike regions where land use acts as a net carbon sink, Northern Ireland’s land management currently represents a net source of emissions.
The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 mandates net zero emissions by 2050, with an interim target of at least 48% reduction by 2030 compared to baseline. The 2024 data covers the second year of the first carbon budget period (2023–2027), during which emissions must remain within statutory limits.
UK Comparison Reveals Widening Gap
Northern Ireland contributed 4.9% of total UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, despite comprising just 2.8% of the UK population. This disparity highlights the region’s higher per-capita emissions intensity.
While UK-wide territorial emissions fell by 3% in 2024 to 373 MtCO2e—driven by the closure of the final coal-fired power station and increased renewable generation—Northern Ireland failed to match this progress. The divergence is stark:
- England: 55% reduction since baseline
- Scotland: 52.2% reduction
- Wales: 44.5% reduction
- Northern Ireland: 29.4% reduction
Missing Details and Policy Gaps
The bulletin does not assess whether current emission levels align with the first carbon budget limits for 2023–2027, nor does it indicate what corrective measures might be required should the budget be exceeded. Under the Climate Change Act, DAERA must publish proposals to compensate for excess emissions in subsequent budgetary periods, yet no such contingency planning appears in this release.
Additionally, the data provides no breakdown of progress against specific sectoral plans for agriculture, transport, and energy. The draft Climate Action Plan 2023–2027, which remains under development, has not yet translated into measurable emission reductions in the 2024 dataset.
Critical Questions for Stakeholders
- Why did Northern Ireland’s emissions flatline in 2024 while the UK achieved a 3% reduction, and what economic or policy factors caused the slowdown after 2023’s progress?
- With agriculture responsible for nearly one-third of emissions, what concrete interventions are being implemented to address livestock methane and fertiliser use, and when will these deliver measurable reductions?
- Given that only a 29.4% reduction has been achieved against a 2030 target of 48%, is the interim target still realistically achievable without emergency policy measures?
- How will the Department ensure compliance with the first carbon budget (2023–2027), and what compensation mechanisms are being prepared given that 2024 showed no significant reduction?
- What structural barriers unique to Northern Ireland’s economy explain the persistent performance gap with England and Scotland, and how can these be addressed?
What to Watch For Next
The stagnation of emissions in 2024 places significant pressure on the remaining years of the first carbon budget period. With the Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections Dashboard now updated with 2024 data, scrutiny will focus on whether forthcoming sectoral plans for agriculture and transport can deliver the accelerated reductions required.
Stakeholders should monitor the finalisation of the Climate Action Plan 2023–2027, which must include annual targets and detailed policy interventions. The 2025 statistics, due in June 2027, will prove critical in determining whether 2024 represents an anomalous pause or the beginning of a plateau that could jeopardise Northern Ireland’s statutory net zero commitments.