Northern Ireland’s councils sent just 4.2 per cent of collected waste to landfill during the final quarter of 2025, a record low that continues the dramatic shift away from burial sites towards energy recovery facilities. The Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) published provisional statistics today showing that nearly 45 per cent of municipal waste was instead diverted to energy recovery processes between October and December 2025, while recycling rates saw a modest uptick to 49.3 per cent.
The quarterly bulletin reveals that councils collected 245,789 tonnes of waste during the three-month period—up from 234,230 tonnes in the same quarter of 2024—with household waste accounting for 87 per cent of the total. The data suggest that Northern Ireland is approaching a crossroads in waste management: landfill capacity is being phased out rapidly, yet recycling rates remain stubbornly below the 60 per cent target set for local authority collected municipal waste.
Record Low Landfill as Energy Recovery Expands
The landfill rate of 4.2 per cent represents a collapse from 16.2 per cent recorded in October to December 2024, and a staggering decline from the 75.4 per cent seen in the equivalent quarter of 2006. Conversely, energy recovery has surged to 44.8 per cent of waste arisings, up from 34.5 per cent in late 2024 and just 0.5 per cent in October to December 2009.
For household waste specifically, the trends are equally pronounced:
- Recycling rate: 49.8 per cent (up from 48.4 per cent in Oct-Dec 2024)
- Landfill rate: 4.1 per cent (down from 16.0 per cent in Oct-Dec 2024)
- Energy recovery: The remaining balance is largely diverted to thermal treatment or refuse-derived fuel exports
The shift reflects both the diminishing availability of landfill space and the increasing reliance on energy-from-waste infrastructure—both domestic and overseas. However, the statistics do not distinguish between waste burned in Northern Ireland facilities versus the thousands of tonnes exported annually as refuse-derived fuel (RDF) to continental European incinerators. Research indicates that in 2023 alone, Northern Ireland exported over 280,000 tonnes of residual waste as RDF, primarily through ports like Warrenpoint.
Recycling Uptick but Targets Remain Elusive
The overall recycling rate of 49.3 per cent for local authority collected municipal waste—covering preparing for reuse, dry recycling and composting—represents an improvement from 47.8 per cent in the same quarter of 2024. Household waste recycling stood at 49.8 per cent, narrowly below the psychologically significant 50 per cent threshold.
While Northern Ireland continues to exceed the 50 per cent household waste recycling target originally set for 2020, it remains adrift of the more ambitious 60 per cent target for local authority collected municipal waste. Annual figures for 2024/25 showed the region plateauing at 50.4 per cent overall recycling, with performance varying dramatically by council: Mid Ulster achieved 59.3 per cent while Belfast lagged at 42.4 per cent.
The quarterly data does not provide council-level breakdowns—that detail awaits the annual report scheduled for November 2026—making it impossible to assess whether the latest uptick represents genuine behavioural change or seasonal variations in garden waste collections.
Infrastructure Questions and Export Reliance
The rapid decline in landfill use raises pressing questions about future infrastructure needs. With landfill now handling barely 4 per cent of waste, Northern Ireland is approaching the point where burial sites will effectively cease to be a disposal option for municipal waste. Yet the region possesses limited domestic energy-from-waste capacity, relying heavily on exports and a handful of existing facilities.
The controversial £240 million arc21 residual waste treatment project at Hightown Quarry—intended to serve six eastern councils representing 60 per cent of the population—remains stalled after planning refusal in 2023 and subsequent judicial review. Meanwhile, RiverRidge operates Northern Ireland’s only large-scale waste-to-energy facility in Belfast, though additional capacity is planned at Kilroot Power Station.
Policy developments continue to reshape the landscape. The Deposit Return Scheme for drinks containers is scheduled to launch in October 2027, while regulations banning single-use vapes came into force on 1 June 2025. These measures may reduce waste arisings in future quarters, though their impact is not yet visible in today’s statistics.
What the Data Doesn’t Show
While the headline figures demonstrate clear environmental progress in diverting waste from landfill, several gaps in the publication merit scrutiny:
- All figures remain provisional until the annual validation process concludes in November 2026
- No council-level breakdown is provided to identify regional performance disparities
- The statistics do not quantify how much of the 44.8 per cent energy recovery figure represents domestic treatment versus RDF exports
- There is no discussion of waste prevention or reduction—only management of waste once created
Five questions emerge from the data:
- With landfill rates now below 5 per cent, does Northern Ireland still require the controversial arc21 incinerator at Hightown, or will a combination of existing capacity, prevention measures, and continued exports suffice?
- How will the Executive reconcile the plateauing recycling rates—stuck around 50 per cent since 2019—with the unmet 60 per cent target for local authority collected municipal waste?
- What proportion of the energy recovery tonnage is exported as RDF, and does this represent value for money for ratepayers compared to domestic infrastructure?
- Will the forthcoming Circular Economy Strategy include binding waste reduction targets, or will policy continue to focus on managing rather than preventing waste creation?
- How are the three councils unaffiliated with waste management groups (arc21 or North West Regional Waste Management Group) performing relative to their grouped counterparts?
Looking Ahead
The statistics confirm that Northern Ireland has effectively solved its landfill problem through a combination of landfill tax, regulatory pressure, and alternative treatment capacity. However, the solution has created new dependencies—particularly on energy recovery markets that may face capacity constraints or price volatility as other UK regions also divert waste from landfill.
The annual report due in November 2026 will provide validated figures and council-level granularity. Until then, policymakers must wrestle with whether the current trajectory—exporting waste or burning it for energy—aligns with the higher rungs of the waste hierarchy (prevention, reuse, recycling) that remain stubbornly out of reach. For now, the bins are being emptied, but the long-term destination for Northern Ireland’s residual waste remains contested.
The full quarterly statistics are available from DAERA’s waste statistics portal.